This Dubai Q4 2025 apartment market report decodes what actually moved in the city’s freehold apartment market between October and December 2025. Using registered DLD sale transactions, it breaks down the off-plan versus ready split, pricing in AED per square foot, ticket-size affordability bands, unit-size signals, and the projects that absorbed the most demand. This is a sales-led edition, written to help buyers and observers understand market structure, not chase headlines.
- Dubai Q4 2025 Market Report
- Market overview
- Key market metrics
- Price trends and market interpretation
- Primary vs secondary market composition (Off-plan vs Ready)
- Configuration distribution: what buyers are choosing
- Unit size trends and market signals
- Top projects and developer activity
- Affordability snapshot: where buyers are spending
- Buyer profile and demand lens
- Rental trends and yield outlook
- Configuration spotlight: project-wise breakdown
- Risks and watchpoints
- Supply snapshot: what is in the pipeline
- Final observations and buyer takeaways
- Data source attribution
Dubai Q4 2025 Market Report
Scope and method
Scope: Residential, Freehold, Unit, Flats only, Sales-only procedures
Period: Q4 2025 (Oct 1 to Dec 31, 2025)
Price metric: Median AED/psf using TRANS_VALUE / (ACTUAL_AREA x 10.7639)
Market overview
Dubai’s Q4 feels less like a finale and more like a steady closing chapter. Volume softened as the quarter progressed, but the market did not lose its shape. What changed was not the direction, but the emphasis.
The quarter stayed firmly off-plan led. That matters because off-plan behaviour is not just a pricing story. It is a patience story. Buyers are choosing a delivery timeline, a promise, a developer, and a future version of a neighbourhood.
At the same time, the most traded part of the market remained compact. Studios and 1BRs kept the wheels turning, quietly doing what they always do in Dubai. They act as the liquidity layer. Easy to enter, easier to exit, and familiar to investors who value velocity over volume.
Larger apartments moved too, but more selectively. In Q4, they behave like ballast. They hold lifestyle value, but they do not drive the count.
Monthly activity (core scope):
- Oct 2025: 15,211 transactions
- Nov 2025: 14,860
- Dec 2025: 14,240
Off-plan share by month:
- Oct: 76.87%
- Nov: 78.32%
- Dec: 78.92%
Interpretation
Q4 is not screaming a new narrative. It is reinforcing an existing one: a market where off-plan carries breadth, and compact inventory carries liquidity.
Key market metrics
Citywide snapshot (Q4 2025)
| Metric | Overall | Off-plan | Ready |
| Transactions | 44,311 | 34,568 | 9,743 |
| Share of transactions | 100% | 78.01% | 21.99% |
| Median price (AED/psf) | 1,773.56 | 1,860.19 | 1,364.68 |
| Median ticket (AED) | 1,304,000 | 1,356,579 | 1,077,534 |
| Median unit size | 73.23 sqm (788 sqft) | 72.12 sqm (776 sqft) | 78.35 sqm (843 sqft) |
Interpretation
- Off-plan leads not only in volume, but also in median pricing for Q4.
- Ready stock shows a slightly larger median size, but a lower median AED/psf, consistent with older resale inventory and wider quality dispersion.
Configuration distribution
| Configuration | Transactions | Share |
| 1BR | 19,391 | 43.76% |
| Studio | 12,132 | 27.38% |
| 2BR | 10,114 | 22.83% |
| 3BR | 2,315 | 5.22% |
| 3BR+ | 350 | 0.79% |
| Unknown/Other | 9 | 0.02% |
AIQYA Insight
Studios and 1BR together form the quarter’s liquidity engine at 71.14% of all transactions. If you want to understand volume, you start here, not at the top end.
The “typical” Q4 home, by configuration (medians)
| Configuration | Median size | Median ticket | Median AED/psf |
| Studio | 38.54 sqm (415 sqft) | 724,999 | 1,825.49 |
| 1BR | 72.78 sqm (783 sqft) | 1,293,216 | 1,665.31 |
| 2BR | 116.22 sqm (1,251 sqft) | 2,320,364 | 1,870.62 |
| 3BR | 177.81 sqm (1,914 sqft) | 4,112,000 | 2,229.20 |
| 3BR+ | 384.76 sqm (4,142 sqft) | 11,197,400 | 2,832.89 |
Data QA note
- Low-price anomalies: 281 records below 300 AED/psf (278 are Ready).
- High tail: 442 records above 5,000 AED/psf (mostly prime off-plan).
- Ready project tagging gap: 28.63% of Ready transactions have missing PROJECT_EN. This affects Ready “Top Projects” tables, not citywide medians.
Price trends and market interpretation
Q4’s pricing story is not a straight line. Volume eased through the quarter, while the median price per square foot firmed up after October and then held steady into December. In other words, activity softened, but pricing did not.
A simple read of the quarter is this: October looks like the “normal” month, November carries the pricing lift, and December consolidates. The lift is largely off-plan led, which fits the quarter’s broader behaviour. When a larger share of transactions is off-plan, the median price level naturally shifts upward because off-plan stock is typically newer, more “promise-priced,” and often positioned around future infrastructure or lifestyle narratives rather than today’s lived reality.
Monthly snapshot (overall, core scope)
| Month (2025) | Transactions | Median AED/psf | Median ticket (AED) |
| Oct | 15,211 | 1,714.79 | 1,270,000 |
| Nov | 14,860 | 1,811.50 | 1,382,179 |
| Dec | 14,240 | 1,815.47 | 1,259,410 |
A more revealing lens is to split the pricing into the two markets that coexist in Dubai.
Off-plan vs Ready: the quarter’s two lanes
- Off-plan median AED/psf moved up sharply in November and softened slightly in December, but stayed above October levels (Oct: 1,800; Nov: 1,916.72; Dec: 1,859.13).
- Ready median AED/psf stayed remarkably stable across all three months, sitting in a narrow band (Oct: 1,349.42; Nov: 1,375.95; Dec: 1,380.38).
This stability in ready pricing matters. It suggests the ready market in Q4 behaved less like a momentum trade and more like a measured resale market, where price discovery is slower and more dependent on unit quality, building age, and immediate livability.
Tickets add another layer. Off-plan tickets peaked in November and came off in December, while ready tickets stayed relatively steady, hovering around the low AED 1.1M mark. That pattern reads like typical year-end behaviour: a burst of mid-quarter commitment in new launches, followed by a more selective close.
A data quality note. The ready dataset contains a small cluster of very low-value and very low AED/psf records. These appear to be recording artefacts rather than true market-clearing transactions. They are not large enough to move medians at the citywide level, but they can distort micro-slices if we zoom in too tightly.
Primary vs secondary market composition (Off-plan vs Ready)
Q4’s shape is defined less by price and more by where transactions are happening. The quarter is decisively primary-market led, with off-plan sales accounting for nearly four out of every five apartment transactions. That dominance is not new for Dubai, but the consistency through the quarter is telling. Off-plan is not just leading. It is holding.
Quarter composition (Q4 2025, core scope):
- Off-plan: 34,568 transactions (78.01%)
- Ready: 9,743 transactions (21.99%)
What adds texture is the month-by-month pattern. Overall transaction volumes eased from October to December, but off-plan’s share edged up slightly as the quarter progressed. The market did not rotate toward ready even as year-end approached. Instead, the primary market continued to absorb most of the activity, suggesting that buyers remained comfortable choosing a delivery timeline in exchange for product freshness, payment structures, or launch-positioned pricing.
Off-plan share by month:
- October: 76.87%
- November: 78.32%
- December: 78.92%
The ready market, in contrast, reads like a quieter lane. It is smaller by count, and it behaves like a resale market typically does: steadier, more sensitive to building age and unit condition, and often driven by practical end-user needs or specific investor holds rather than broad launch momentum.
A data note: Ready transactions have a meaningful “project not tagged” gap in the DLD export, which affects project-level league tables within the ready market. It does not change the primary-versus-secondary split or citywide medians, but it does influence how cleanly we can rank ready projects by volume.
The practical takeaway for interpretation is simple. In Q4, Dubai’s apartment market continues to operate in two linked systems. Off-plan provides breadth and choice, and it absorbs the bulk of transactional energy. Ready provides immediacy and certainty, and it stays more selective, even when the quarter is busy.
Configuration distribution: what buyers are choosing
If Q4 has a single organising theme, it is this: the market continues to transact most comfortably in compact formats. The volume sits with studios and 1BRs, while 2BRs provide the bridge between investment logic and family practicality. Larger homes exist, but they remain a thinner slice of the quarter by count.
Across the full quarter, studios and 1BRs account for 71.14% of all apartment transactions. That is the liquidity layer in plain numbers. It is the part of the market that moves most often, absorbs new supply fastest, and stays legible to investors because the entry ticket is more manageable.
Overall configuration mix (Q4 2025)
| Configuration | Transactions | Share |
| 1BR | 19,391 | 43.76% |
| Studio | 12,132 | 27.38% |
| 2BR | 10,114 | 22.83% |
| 3BR | 2,315 | 5.22% |
| 3BR+ | 350 | 0.79% |
| Unknown/Other | 9 | 0.02% |
The more revealing view is how this mix changes between off-plan and ready.
Off-plan leans further into compact units. Ready, while still led by 1BR, tilts meaningfully toward 2BR and 3BR. That difference matters because it hints at buyer intent. Off-plan demand tends to behave like a product and pricing cycle. Ready demand tends to behave like a lived requirement.
Off-plan vs Ready configuration share (Q4 2025)
| Configuration | Overall | Off-plan | Ready |
| Studio | 27.38% | 28.45% | 23.58% |
| 1BR | 43.76% | 44.33% | 41.75% |
| 2BR | 22.83% | 21.99% | 25.80% |
| 3BR | 5.22% | 4.54% | 7.66% |
| 3BR+ | 0.79% | 0.69% | 1.15% |
A quiet but important undercurrent sits behind these shares. Pricing and “newness” are doing a lot of work in off-plan. At the median, off-plan units are priced higher across every configuration, with the sharpest gap visible in compact formats. That reinforces why studios and 1BRs keep showing up as the market’s transactional engine. They are where supply is abundant, buyer behaviour is familiar, and resale expectations are easier to model.
In the ready market, the higher share of 2BR and 3BR transactions suggests a more utility-led buyer pool. It is the part of the market that values immediacy, established neighbourhood cues, and livability certainty, even if the product is older and the pricing per square foot is less elevated.
Unit size trends and market signals
Unit sizes in Q4 tell a quieter story than prices, and often a more reliable one. The median apartment transacted this quarter sits just under 75 square metres, and the middle of the market is tightly defined. Most deals are not happening at the extremes. They are happening in a familiar size envelope that has become the default shape of Dubai’s apartment liquidity.
What stands out is the difference between off-plan and ready inventory. Off-plan transactions are not only higher in share, they are also more standardised in size. Ready inventory is broader, with a wider spread that reflects older building stock, more variation in layouts, and a longer tail of larger homes.
Size envelope (all apartments, Q4 2025)
| Segment | Median size | 25th percentile | 75th percentile | 10th percentile | 90th percentile |
| Overall | 73.23 sqm (788 sqft) | 46.55 sqm (501 sqft) | 101.94 sqm (1,097 sqft) | 37.06 sqm (399 sqft) | 138.48 sqm (1,491 sqft) |
| Off-plan | 72.12 sqm (776 sqft) | 44.65 sqm (481 sqft) | 96.74 sqm (1,041 sqft) | 36.56 sqm (394 sqft) | 133.50 sqm (1,437 sqft) |
| Ready | 78.35 sqm (843 sqft) | 56.39 sqm (607 sqft) | 116.82 sqm (1,257 sqft) | 39.14 sqm (421 sqft) | 160.42 sqm (1,727 sqft) |
The practical read is simple. Off-plan is shaping the market around a more compact, repeatable product. Ready homes, in contrast, cover a wider range, and the upper end is materially larger. That spread matters when we later interpret affordability and ticket bands, because wider size dispersion often produces wider ticket dispersion even when AED/psf looks steady.
The pattern becomes clearer when unit sizes are viewed by configuration.
Median unit sizes by configuration (Q4 2025)
| Configuration | Overall median size | Off-plan median size | Ready median size |
| Studio | 38.54 sqm (415 sqft) | 38.16 sqm (411 sqft) | 41.11 sqm (442 sqft) |
| 1BR | 72.78 sqm (783 sqft) | 72.40 sqm (779 sqft) | 74.31 sqm (800 sqft) |
| 2BR | 116.22 sqm (1,251 sqft) | 115.33 sqm (1,241 sqft) | 122.47 sqm (1,319 sqft) |
| 3BR | 177.81 sqm (1,914 sqft) | 173.47 sqm (1,867 sqft) | 188.47 sqm (2,029 sqft) |
Ready inventory is consistently larger across studios through 3BR, which aligns with the idea that older stock often carries more generous proportions, even if it is not priced as aggressively on a per-square-foot basis. Off-plan, meanwhile, shows a tighter sizing discipline, particularly in the 1BR and 2BR bands where the bulk of transaction volume sits.
This matters because unit size is a proxy for product strategy. A market that transacts heavily within a narrow size envelope tends to be more liquid and more comparable across projects. A market with wider dispersion tends to be more lifestyle-led, more unit-specific, and slower to price uniformly.
Top projects and developer activity
Q4’s volume is not carried by a single blockbuster. It is spread across a long list of projects, which is usually a healthier sign than a quarter dominated by a few launch-heavy outliers. Even within off-plan, the top projects lead, but they do not monopolise.
In the off-plan market, the top 10 projects contribute 16.31% of off-plan transactions, and the top 20 contribute 27.03%. That is meaningful concentration, but not dependence. It suggests Q4 absorption was broad enough to avoid looking like a one-developer quarter.
Top off-plan projects by transaction volume (Q4 2025)
| Project | Transactions | Share of off-plan |
| Binghatti Vintage | 883 | 2.55% |
| Skyhills Astra | 619 | 1.79% |
| Sobha Central Phase II | 589 | 1.70% |
| Binghatti Flare 01 | 582 | 1.68% |
| Damac Riverside Views – Capri 1 | 544 | 1.57% |
| Breez by Danube | 506 | 1.46% |
| Binghatti Skyblade | 500 | 1.45% |
| Sobha Solis | 483 | 1.40% |
| Binghatti Flare 02 | 466 | 1.35% |
| Damac Riverside Views – Azure 2 | 465 | 1.35% |
What stands out here is not just who appears, but how often. A large share of the top off-plan list is made up of multiple projects from the same branded developer families, which points to a sustained launch cadence rather than a single flagship. For example, 8 of the top 15 off-plan projects are Binghatti-titled, and Sobha and Damac also appear through multi-project or multi-phase activity.
The ready market needs a different treatment. Project tagging is incomplete in the DLD export for ready transactions, so ready project rankings cannot be read as a full leaderboard. The more honest approach is to show the gap explicitly and then list the most active tagged projects.
Ready market, project tagging reality (Q4 2025)
| Ready projects | Transactions | Share of ready |
| Project not tagged (DLD) | 2,789 | 28.63% |
| Remraam | 99 | 1.02% |
| Sky Courts | 81 | 0.83% |
| Casa Flores and Eden Apartments | 80 | 0.82% |
| Hera Tower | 69 | 0.71% |
| Lakeside | 66 | 0.68% |
| Binghatti Azure | 64 | 0.66% |
| Binghatti Royale | 61 | 0.63% |
| Luma Park Views | 58 | 0.60% |
| Peninsula One | 48 | 0.49% |
| Damac Hills – Carson | 46 | 0.47% |
The practical interpretation is straightforward. Off-plan activity is easier to “see” in project tables because project tagging is complete and launch-led. Ready activity is real, but the dataset records a large portion without project names, which means area-level analysis becomes more reliable than project-level rankings for the ready segment.
Affordability snapshot: where buyers are spending
Affordability in Dubai is not a single number. It is a distribution, and Q4’s distribution is quite disciplined. Most transactions sit in a mid-band zone that is neither entry-level nor ultra-premium. That is useful, because it tells us where the market is most liquid and where pricing has to remain psychologically “doable” for volume to sustain.
In Q4, the market’s centre of gravity sits between AED 0.75M and AED 3.0M, which accounts for 69.68% of all apartment transactions in the core scope. The single most active band is AED 1.0M to AED 1.5M, contributing 27.00% of all deals.
At the upper end, the picture is clear and contained. Transactions above AED 5.0M form 4.11% of the market by count. They matter for narrative and prestige, but they do not carry volume.
The shape of the bands also maps neatly to buyer intent. Below AED 1.0M, studios dominate. Between AED 1.0M and AED 3.0M, the market becomes 1BR-led. Beyond AED 3.0M, 2BR takes over, and the AED 5.0M+ band begins to reflect 3BR and larger lifestyle-led choices.
Ticket bands (Q4 2025, core scope)
Note: For the ticket-band table only, 61 records below AED 100k were excluded as likely recording artefacts.
| Ticket band (AED) | Transactions | Share | Median ticket | Dominant configuration | Off-plan share |
| < 0.75M | 7,858 | 17.76% | 641,592 | Studio | 63.11% |
| 0.75M-1.0M | 5,880 | 13.29% | 855,999 | Studio | 74.54% |
| 1.0M-1.5M | 11,948 | 27.00% | 1,209,447 | 1BR | 83.80% |
| 1.5M-2.0M | 6,157 | 13.91% | 1,697,000 | 1BR | 84.13% |
| 2.0M-3.0M | 6,849 | 15.48% | 2,357,120 | 1BR | 82.19% |
| 3.0M-5.0M | 3,741 | 8.45% | 3,652,000 | 2BR | 81.53% |
| 5.0M+ | 1,817 | 4.11% | 7,480,888 | 3BR | 74.52% |
A subtle but important detail is how off-plan behaves across the bands. Off-plan dominance becomes strongest in the AED 1.0M to AED 3.0M range, where more than four out of five transactions are off-plan. Below AED 0.75M, the off-plan share drops, and ready transactions take up more space. That is consistent with value-seeking behaviour at the entry end, where older, smaller, or more varied ready stock can still clear at lower tickets.
Buyer profile and demand lens
Dubai’s Q4 apartment market reads like a negotiated balance between two instincts: the desire for liquidity and the desire for lived certainty. The data does not tell us who the buyer is in a personal sense, but it does reveal what kind of decision the buyer is making, and how much they are willing to commit.
The quarter is led by compact inventory. Studios and 1BRs account for 71.14% of all transactions, and the median ticket sits at AED 1.304M. This is the part of the market that stays easiest to enter, easiest to rent, and easiest to resell. When this layer dominates, it usually signals an investor-heavy participation, or at the very least, buyers who are thinking in terms of flexibility.
Off-plan’s share reinforces that reading. 78.01% of Q4 apartment transactions are off-plan. That is a large number, and it carries a behavioural implication. Off-plan buyers are opting into a timeline. They are trading immediacy for a newer product, payment structures, and a future-facing narrative around a location or a developer’s brand. The off-plan median price per square foot is higher than ready, and yet volume still sits there. That tells us demand is comfortable paying for “newness” in Q4, even as overall transaction counts eased month-on-month.
Ticket bands show where the market is most emotionally habitable. Nearly 70% of transactions fall between AED 0.75M and AED 3.0M, with the largest single band at AED 1.0M to AED 1.5M. This is the zone where buying feels plausible without being speculative. It is also where most off-plan activity clusters. If Q4 had a mainstream buyer, this is where they were shopping, and this is where developers succeeded in converting intent into registrations.
The ready market behaves differently, and that difference matters for buyer intent. Ready is smaller by volume at 21.99%, but it shows steadier pricing and slightly larger median sizes. That typically aligns with needs that are harder to postpone: households that want immediate occupancy, buyers who prioritise established building cues, and investors who prefer a working rental asset over a future delivery.
The configuration split between off-plan and ready quietly supports this. Ready carries a higher share of 2BR and 3BR transactions than off-plan. That does not mean the ready buyer is always an end-user, but it does suggest a more utility-led decision, where space and livability certainty matter alongside price.
So, Q4’s demand lens can be summarised as follows:
- Investors and flexibility-first buyers remain the dominant force, expressed through the weight of studios and 1BRs and the strength of off-plan absorption.
- End-users and utility-led buyers are present, and they show up more clearly in the ready market and in the comparatively higher share of 2BR and 3BR transactions.
- Upgraders are visible at the band edges, especially where 2BR begins to dominate above AED 3.0M, but they are not driving volume. They are shaping the upper-mid segment.
This split sets up the next question naturally. If Q4 demand is strongly off-plan and compact-led, what does that imply for rental outcomes, especially when the ready market is the part that houses tenants today. This edition is sales-led, so yield metrics are not included. A short note on rentals follows, and yield estimates will be added once a comparable Q4 lease extract is available.
Rental trends and yield outlook
This edition is based on registered sale transactions. A comparable Q4 2025 rental contract (Ejari) extract was not available at the time of publication, so we have not presented median rents or gross yield estimates in this report. Rental performance is most relevant to the compact formats that dominate transaction volume, particularly studios and 1BR units. Once lease-contract data is integrated for the same scope and period, we will publish an update with configuration-level median rents and gross yields, computed using median annual rent against median sale tickets. Until then, sales patterns should be read as demand and pricing signals, not as a proxy for income performance.
Configuration spotlight: project-wise breakdown
A configuration view tells us what sold. A project view tells us where that demand pooled, and how differently projects are positioning the same bedroom count in terms of price-per-square-foot, ticket size, and typical unit sizing.
For Q4, this section leans more on off-plan for project-level breakdowns because project tagging is complete there. In the ready dataset, a meaningful share of transactions are not tagged to a project name in the DLD export, and that share rises as homes get larger.
| Configuration | Ready transactions | Share without project tag |
| Studio | 2,297 | 23.7% |
| 1BR | 4,068 | 28.2% |
| 2BR | 2,514 | 32.4% |
| 3BR | 746 | 32.3% |
| 3BR+ | 112 | 35.7% |
What follows is therefore a clean read of off-plan project leaders within each configuration, which is where Q4’s project-level story is most visible.
Studios (off-plan)
Studios remain the market’s most repeatable product. Even among the top projects, pricing spreads widely, signalling very different positioning for what is, on paper, the same configuration.
| Project | Transactions | Share | Median AED/psf | Median ticket (AED) | Median size |
| BINGHATTI VINTAGE | 704 | 7.2% | 1,890 | 710,499 | 374 sqft |
| SKYHILLS ASTRA | 329 | 3.3% | 2,274 | 917,000 | 379 sqft |
| BINGHATTI SKYBLADE | 327 | 3.3% | 3,920 | 1,804,999 | 462 sqft |
| BINGHATTI TITANIA | 268 | 2.7% | 1,846 | 692,499 | 375 sqft |
| BREEZ BY DANUBE | 245 | 2.5% | 3,503 | 1,404,000 | 395 sqft |
1BR (off-plan)
The 1BR segment is where most of the quarter’s mainstream liquidity sits. The leaders here are not dominant in share, but they are consistent in pulling volume, with noticeable differences in median sizing and ticket even when AED/psf appears close.
| Project | Transactions | Share | Median AED/psf | Median ticket (AED) | Median size |
| DAMAC RIVERSIDE VIEWS – CAPRI 1 | 494 | 3.2% | 1,447 | 1,172,380 | 806 sqft |
| SOBHA SOLIS | 442 | 2.9% | 2,015 | 1,109,096 | 545 sqft |
| BINGHATTI FLARE 01 | 308 | 2.0% | 1,600 | 1,279,999 | 821 sqft |
| SOBHA CENTRAL PHASE II | 294 | 1.9% | 2,945 | 1,533,790 | 519 sqft |
| DAMAC RIVERSIDE VIEWS – AZURE 2 | 288 | 1.9% | 1,446 | 1,093,000 | 756 sqft |
2BR (off-plan)
2BRs behave like the market’s balance point. They attract both end-users and investors who want a stronger “family utility” case. The top projects show a clear split between mid-premium positioning and prime, high-ticket stock.
| Project | Transactions | Share | Median AED/psf | Median ticket (AED) | Median size |
| SOBHA CENTRAL PHASE II | 295 | 3.9% | 3,005 | 2,602,890 | 872 sqft |
| JUMEIRAH RESIDENCES EMIRATES TOWERS | 131 | 1.7% | 4,761 | 6,674,000 | 1,373 sqft |
| SOBHA CENTRAL PHASE I | 119 | 1.6% | 2,860 | 3,401,688 | 1,202 sqft |
| TERRA GARDENS | 116 | 1.5% | 2,154 | 2,406,388 | 1,119 sqft |
| LYVIA BY PALACE | 111 | 1.5% | 2,636 | 3,133,888 | 1,206 sqft |
3BR and 3BR+ (off-plan)
Larger homes are a thinner market by count, and project tables here look more “lumpy.” A small change in absolute transactions can move rankings quickly, and ticket sizes escalate sharply.
3BR (off-plan leaders)
| Project | Transactions | Share | Median AED/psf | Median ticket (AED) | Median size |
| LYVIA BY PALACE | 39 | 2.5% | 2,353 | 4,356,888 | 1,835 sqft |
| CAPRIA EAST | 36 | 2.3% | 2,072 | 4,216,000 | 2,030 sqft |
| JUMEIRAH RESIDENCES EMIRATES TOWERS | 32 | 2.0% | 5,652 | 10,898,500 | 1,946 sqft |
| RISE BY ATHLON 3 | 30 | 1.9% | 1,454 | 3,064,250 | 2,090 sqft |
| MONTIVA | 28 | 1.8% | 2,277 | 4,178,348 | 1,835 sqft |
3BR+ (off-plan leaders)
| Project | Transactions | Share | Median AED/psf | Median ticket (AED) | Median size |
| SOLAYA 123 | 25 | 10.5% | 6,867 | 32,224,000 | 4,610 sqft |
| SIX SENSES RESIDENCES DUBAI MARINA | 12 | 5.0% | 3,182 | 15,384,685 | 5,209 sqft |
| SOLAYA 46 | 8 | 3.4% | 7,478 | 34,265,500 | 4,572 sqft |
| PENINSULA DUBAI RESIDENCES – TOWER 2 | 8 | 3.4% | 8,180 | 39,520,763 | 5,253 sqft |
| SKYSCAPE | 8 | 3.4% | 2,746 | 7,927,255 | 2,887 sqft |
Risks and watchpoints
Q4 is a quarter that rewards careful reading. The dataset is clean enough to support citywide conclusions, but there are a few structural watchpoints that can quietly distort interpretation if we treat all tables as equally reliable.
The first watchpoint is the dominance of off-plan. When nearly four out of five transactions are primary market sales, the quarter’s median price level becomes more reflective of new supply positioning than lived, delivered stock. This is not a flaw, it is simply what the market is choosing to transact. The risk is narrative drift: mistaking an off-plan led median uplift for a universal, across-the-board repricing of the built city.
The second watchpoint sits in the ready market’s project metadata. A large share of ready transactions in the DLD export are not tagged to a project name. This does not compromise the citywide split between off-plan and ready, and it does not materially shift medians. Where it does matter is in project-level leaderboards and any conclusions about which ready projects are “winning” Q4. For ready stock, area-level reads will remain more reliable than project league tables unless project tagging is enriched through a separate mapping layer.
A third watchpoint is the presence of a small cluster of low-value and very low AED/psf records in the ready dataset. These look like recording artefacts rather than true market-clearing prices. They are too few to move citywide medians, but they can distort thin slices, especially if we zoom into micro-markets, narrow ticket bands, or small project samples. In later analysis, a transparent floor filter can be applied for recording artefacts, or these rows can be retained with an explicit exclusions log so the methodology remains defensible.
The fourth watchpoint is concentration risk in how off-plan demand forms. Q4’s off-plan volume is spread across many projects, which is generally healthier than a quarter driven by one headline launch. Still, a significant share of activity pools into a relatively small group of developer families that appear repeatedly across the top lists. That is not inherently negative, but it means the quarter’s absorption strength is partly a reflection of launch cadence and distribution reach. If launch pipelines slow or pricing expectations stretch, volume can shift quickly, particularly in the compact formats that currently carry the liquidity layer.
There is also a subtle yield watchpoint embedded in the quarter’s structure. Compact units dominate transaction volume, and off-plan pricing sits above ready at the median. If rents do not keep pace with off-plan pricing, yields compress first in the most traded segments. We cannot conclude this from sales data alone, but it is precisely the pressure point to test once Q4 lease data is added.
Finally, a scope watchpoint. This report intentionally excludes villas and townhouses to keep apartment signals clean and comparable quarter to quarter. The risk is not analytical, it is interpretive. Readers often mix the villa cycle with the apartment cycle when talking about “Dubai residential.” The apartment market can be firming while villa prices behave differently, and vice versa. Keeping the lens narrow here is a feature, but the boundary should be stated clearly so the conclusions are not misapplied.
Supply snapshot: what is in the pipeline
Q4’s strongest supply signal is not a single project launch. It is the market’s continued willingness to transact off-plan at scale. With off-plan accounting for 78.01% of apartment transactions this quarter, the pipeline is not a background factor. It is the main stage.
That said, this dataset captures transactions, not future inventory. We can read supply indirectly through two cues: how broad the absorption base is, and what kind of product is being absorbed.
First, breadth. Off-plan activity in Q4 is spread across many projects. The top 10 off-plan projects account for about 16% of off-plan volume, which suggests absorption is not overly dependent on a single headline launch. That reduces short-term concentration risk, at least on the demand side. A quarter where one or two projects dominate is more vulnerable to marketing cycles. Q4 looks more distributed than that.
Second, product shape. The pipeline that is most actively being taken up is compact. Studios and 1BRs dominate the quarter’s transactions, and off-plan inventory leans even more heavily in that direction. This is an important signal because it tells us what kind of future stock is being digested smoothly. Compact units behave like a liquidity engine, but they also require a steady rental and resale ecosystem to absorb completions without pressure.
Where supply becomes a watchpoint is when the pipeline keeps producing the same narrow product bands while pricing continues to firm faster than rents can follow. We have not integrated lease contracts yet, so we will not draw yield conclusions here. But structurally, this is where the strain usually appears first: compact units, high volume, pricing confidence, and a heavy dependence on continued investor participation.
A final framing point for the report. This apartment-only lens intentionally excludes villas and townhouses. That is important in a supply discussion because the pipeline story for apartments and the pipeline story for villa communities are not the same. Dubai can be oversupplied in one product type and tight in another, in the same quarter. Keeping the categories separate is what preserves clarity.
Final observations and buyer takeaways
Q4 2025 closes with a market that feels organised, not chaotic. Volume eased through the quarter, but the underlying structure stayed intact. Off-plan remained the dominant lane, compact formats carried the bulk of transactions, and the ready market behaved like a steadier, more selective counterpart.
For investors focused on liquidity
The quarter’s liquidity sits where it usually sits in Dubai: studios and 1BRs. Together, they account for 71.14% of apartment transactions. That is a strong signal that the entry-to-mid ticket market still moves consistently, even when overall volumes soften.
The pricing nuance is important. Off-plan median pricing is higher than ready at the citywide level. If rents do not keep pace, yields tend to compress first in the very formats that trade most often. This is the first place yield pressure usually shows up once rents are accounted for.
Practical takeaway: if you are buying compact off-plan, underwrite the hold period and the expected rent conservatively. Liquidity is strong, but pricing confidence is already embedded.
For end-users looking for livability and immediacy
The ready market is smaller in share at 21.99%, but it offers a different value: certainty. Ready pricing also stayed relatively stable month to month in Q4. That stability is often what households prefer, especially when decision-making is anchored to schools, commute, and move-in timelines.
Unit size trends also lean in favour of ready for utility. Median sizes are slightly larger in ready stock, which can translate into more liveable proportions, depending on building quality and layout.
Practical takeaway: if the goal is immediate living, ready stock remains the clearer lane. Focus on building quality, maintenance standards, and unit-level fit. Price per square foot alone will not capture the full story.
For upgraders and long-horizon buyers
The quarter shows a steady “balance point” around 2BR. It is not the biggest segment by share, but it functions as the bridge between investment logic and family practicality. Tickets rise meaningfully beyond AED 3.0M, and the market thins out quickly in 3BR and above, which makes those segments more unit-specific and less driven by broad momentum.
Practical takeaway: in the 2BR to 3BR range, project selection and layout quality matter more than quarter-wide medians. This is where buyer experience diverges sharply between projects.
What to watch as we move into Q1 2026
If Q4 is the closing chapter, Q1 will test whether the same structure holds.
Three signals matter most:
- Whether off-plan continues to carry near 80% share, or whether the market rotates toward ready.
- Whether compact-unit pricing holds without further yield pressure once rents are accounted for.
- Whether absorption remains broad across many projects, or becomes more concentrated around fewer launches.
One final boundary worth repeating. This report is intentionally apartment-only to keep comparability clean. Villas and townhouses follow a different cycle and should be read as a separate lens, not blended into these medians.
Data source attribution
This report is based on official registered transaction records from the Dubai Land Department (DLD).
Dataset and scope
- Geography: Dubai (all freehold residential areas represented in the dataset)
- Period covered: Q4 2025 (October 1 to December 31, 2025)
- Asset class: Residential, Freehold, Unit transactions
- Property type included: Flats/Apartments only
- Property types excluded: Villas, townhouses, plots, hotel rooms, commercial units (offices/shops), and other non-apartment categories
Transaction filters applied (sales-only)
Included sales procedures:
- Sale
- Sell – Pre registration
- Sale on Payment Plan
Excluded procedures (not exhaustive):
- Mortgages
- Grants
- Delayed sell
- Lease-to-own
- Other non-sale registrations
Off-plan vs Ready classification
Off-plan vs Ready segmentation is taken directly from the DLD field:
- IS_OFFPLAN_EN
No manual overrides were applied.
Price metric and calculations
- AED per square foot (AED/psf) is computed as:
TRANS_VALUE / (ACTUAL_AREA x 10.7639) - Key statistics in this report use medians rather than averages to reduce the influence of outliers and ultra-premium transactions.
Deduplication
The DLD export used for Q4 does not provide a consistent unit identifier across rows. To avoid accidental removal of legitimate transactions, deduplication was handled conservatively:
- Deduplication was applied using the rule: Unit + Project Name + Registration Date + Area (keeping the first occurrence).
Known data limitations and QA notes
- A small number of records show unusually low transaction values or implied AED/psf values. These appear to be recording artefacts rather than market-clearing prices. They do not materially impact citywide medians but can distort very narrow slices.
- In the ready segment, a meaningful share of transactions are missing PROJECT_EN values in the DLD export. This affects the completeness of ready project leaderboards, but not the citywide split or citywide medians.
Disclaimer
Figures are based on official registered datasets. Minor gaps may exist due to naming inconsistencies, missing fields, or classification limitations in the source export. This report is intended for insight and education, not financial advice.
