Business Bay Real Estate Market Q3 2025 reflected a selective, compact-driven quarter. Transactions fell sharply to 66, yet the median price per square foot surged to AED 2,688; a 90% jump driven by compact, higher-spec stock. The area’s median ticket rose 15% to AED 2.39 million, showing buyers’ willingness to pay for specification, location, and brand. Off-plan deals accounted for nearly 79% of all transactions, highlighting Business Bay’s continued appeal to investors seeking premium, compact formats. For end users, the slowdown opened space to negotiate, making Q3 a period of quiet selectivity amid Dubai’s broader expansion cycle.
- Market Overview
- Key Market Metrics
- Price Trends and Market Interpretation
- Primary vs Secondary Market Composition
- Configuration Distribution – What Are Buyers Choosing?
- Unit Size Trends and Market Signals
- Top Projects & Developer Activity: Who’s Leading Sales?
- Affordability Snapshot: Where Buyers Are Spending
- Buyer Profile & Demand Lens
- Rental Trends and Yield Outlook
- Configuration Spotlight: Project-wise Breakdown
- Risks and Watchpoints
- Supply Snapshot: What is in the pipeline?
- Final Observations and Buyer Takeaways
- Data Source Attribution
Market Overview
Business Bay moved on a tighter clip in Q3. Volumes thinned while price per square foot climbed hard. This looks like a rotation. Launch energy shifted to other corridors, and inside Business Bay, the action clustered in compact, higher-spec stacks where buyers will pay more per foot. The result is fewer deals, a higher psf, and a median ticket that edged up on a smaller base.
Scope
Residential Freehold only. Apartments, townhouses, and villas included. Hotel apartments excluded.
Business Bay snapshot (Q3 2025 with QoQ context)
| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | QoQ change |
| Transactions | 66 | 352 | −81.3% |
| Total value | AED 0.19 bn | AED 0.83 bn | −77.1% |
| Median ticket | AED 2.39 mn | AED 2.07 mn | +15.5% |
| Median price, AED per sq.ft | 2,688 | 1,410 | +90.6% |
📝 Interpretation
This is a composition, not a simple price surge. With fewer off-plan registrations landing in Q3 and a tilt toward compact, spec-led towers, the median psf jumped while deal counts fell.
🧭 AIQYA Insight
For investors, work with rentable compact stock with a clean exit history rather than chase headline psf prints. For end users and upgraders, use the slower tape to shortlist by tower and stack, then negotiate around service charges and floorplate.
Key Market Metrics
Business Bay’s Q3 profile is clear. Off-plan dominated registrations. The configuration stack leaned to compact and mid-sized homes. Tickets clustered between 1.5 and 3 million with a meaningful 3 to 5 million tail.
Table 2A. Ready vs. off-plan split (Business Bay)
(Q3 vs Q2, counts and shares; paste directly into Word)
| Quarter | Ready (count) | Ready (%) | Off plan (count) | Off plan (%) | Total |
| Q3 2025 | 14 | 21.2 | 52 | 78.8 | 66 |
| Q2 2025 | 325 | 92.3 | 27 | 7.7 | 352 |
Table 2B. Configuration mix (Q3 2025, share of transactions)
| Configuration | Share |
| 1 BR | 45.5% |
| 2 BR | 27.3% |
| Studio | 24.2% |
| 3 BR | 1.5% |
| 3 BR+ | 1.5% |
Table 2C. Ticket bands (Q3 2025, share of transactions)
| Ticket band (AED) | Share |
| ≤ 0.75 mn | 0.0% |
| 0.75–1.5 mn | 15.2% |
| 1.5–3 mn | 59.1% |
| 3–5 mn | 21.2% |
| 5 mn+ | 4.5% |
📝 Interpretation
The Q3 tape was off plan led. That pulled the mix toward one beds and two beds, with studios still active but not dominant. The absence of sub 0.75 million tickets and the concentration in the 1.5 to 3 million band underline Business Bay’s shift toward mid priced, specification-led product this quarter.
🧭 AIQYA Insight
Investors should target one bed formats in buildings with leasing depth and low exit friction. End users can use the slower quarter to negotiate within the 1.5 to 3 million range, prioritising stack, orientation, and service charges. Upgraders who need two beds will find selective value in older towers with proven management.
Price Trends and Market Interpretation
Business Bay priced higher in Q3. The median ticket stepped up, and the psf almost doubled quarter on quarter. This is not a sudden inflation story. It is a mix and micro selection. With off-plan dominating and buyers clustering in compact, higher specification stacks, the clearing price per foot rose faster than the headline ticket.
Table 3A. Price metrics, Business Bay
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| Metric | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | QoQ change |
| Median price, AED per sq.ft | 1,410 | 2,688 | +90.6% |
| Median ticket, AED | 2,067,757 | 2,389,434 | +15.6% |
Notes
- Scope is Residential Freehold only. Hotel apartments are excluded.
- Figures are medians from registered transactions.
📝 Interpretation
Two things moved together. First, the configuration stack tilted to one beds and compact two beds, which carry higher psf. Second, a selective set of higher specification towers set the pace for ready resales. Fewer deals, tighter selection, and compact formats pushed psf much faster than tickets.
🧭 AIQYA Insight
Do not chase the Q3 psf print as a new baseline. Price each tower by stack, service charges, and leasing history. For investors, the most resilient trades are compact one beds with strong rental depth. For end users and upgraders, use the slower tape to negotiate orientation, floorplate, and amenity value rather than overpaying for a headline psf.
Primary vs Secondary Market Composition
Business Bay flipped from a ready-led quarter in Q2 to an off-plan led quarter in Q3. Registrations concentrated in launch-linked stock, while ready trades slowed and became more selective at the tower and stack level.
Table 4A. Ready vs Off-plan split, Business Bay
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| Quarter | Ready (count) | Ready (%) | Off plan (count) | Off plan (%) | Total |
| Q3 2025 | 14 | 21.2 | 52 | 78.8 | 66 |
| Q2 2025 | 325 | 92.3 | 27 | 7.7 | 352 |
Table 4B. Change in composition, Q2 to Q3
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| Shift | Percentage points |
| Ready share | −71.1 |
| Off plan share | +71.1 |
Notes
- Scope is Residential Freehold only. Hotel apartments excluded.
- Any records without a clear ready or off plan flag are treated as Unknown and excluded from percentage splits.
📝 Interpretation
Q3 belonged to launches. The mix moved toward off-plan, which also explains why the configuration stack tilted to one bed and compacted two beds. Ready sales thinned but stayed focused in better specified towers where end users and upgraders still transacted.
🧭 AIQYA Insight
Investors should work on allocation days and shortlist a few repeat-delivery developers active in Business Bay or adjacent corridors. End users should not read the off-plan surge as a uniform price rise. Price ready homes tower by tower and negotiate on stack, orientation, and service charges.
Configuration Distribution – What Are Buyers Choosing?
Business Bay’s buyers concentrated in compact formats. One beds led the quarter, followed by two beds, with studios still active but not dominant. Three beds and larger traded rarely and were mostly end-user decisions in better specified stacks.
Table 5A. Configuration mix, Business Bay (Q3 2025)
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| Configuration | Share of transactions |
| 1 BR | 45.5% |
| 2 BR | 27.3% |
| Studio | 24.2% |
| 3 BR | 1.5% |
| 3 BR+ | 1.5% |
📝 Interpretation
The mix aligns with the off plan tilt. One beds dominate because payment plans and expected rentability keep monthly outflows predictable. Two beds hold the upgrade lane for couples and small families who want space but still value location. Studios remain a liquidity engine yet ceded some share to one beds, which offered a better rent-to-ticket balance in Q3.
🧭 AIQYA Insight
- Investor: prioritise one beds in buildings with strong leasing depth and clean exit records.
- End user: look at two-bed floorplates in established towers where service charges are transparent.
- Upgrader: if you need three beds, shop stack by stack and trade a modest psf premium for orientation and layout rather than chasing headline discounts.
Unit Size Trends and Market Signals
The quarter shrank in footprint. Median built-up area moved from about 1,907 sq.ft in Q2 to about 899 sq.ft in Q3. That is the tell. Buyers concentrated in compact and mid-sized homes, with the centre of gravity between 800 and 1,100 sq.ft.
Table 6A. Size bands, Business Bay (Q3 2025)
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| Size band | Share of transactions | Count |
| Compact ≤550 sq.ft | 19.7% | 13 |
| Urban 551–800 sq.ft | 10.6% | 7 |
| Mid 801–1,100 sq.ft | 39.4% | 26 |
| Family 1,101–1,600 sq.ft | 21.2% | 14 |
| Large 1,600+ sq.ft | 9.1% | 6 |
Reference medians
- Median size Q2: 1,907 sq.ft
- Median size Q3: 899 sq.ft
📝 Interpretation
Q3 favoured smaller footprints. The mix pivoted from large units in Q2 to mid-sized and compact units in Q3. That compression explains the sharp rise in psf, even as the median ticket rose only modestly. It also matches the configuration story where one-bed and compact two-bed dominated.
🧭 AIQYA Insight
- Investor: the 801 to 1,100 sq.ft band is the workhorse. It rents quickly and preserves exit speed.
- End user: treat 1,100 to 1,600 sq.ft as the value lane for two beds if you want room to live without leaving the district.
- Upgrader: large formats traded lightly. If you need the extra space, shop stack by stack and buy orientation and floorplate rather than chasing a low headline psf.
Top Projects & Developer Activity: Who’s Leading Sales?
Q3 in Business Bay was narrow and selective. Deals concentrated in a handful of towers, led by compact, high-spec product that clears fast when sentiment favors off plan. Ready trades were thinner and gravitated to better run buildings where stack and finish justify the ask.
Table 7A. Top Projects by sales: Business Bay, Q3 2025
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| Project | Transactions | Total value (AED bn) | Median ticket (AED) |
| Downtown Residences | 34 | 0.10 | 2,504,490 |
| Trillionaire Residences by Binghatti | 14 | 0.02 | 1,510,000 |
| CHIC TOWER | 13 | 0.03 | 2,025,000 |
| One.B Tower | 4 | 0.01 | 2,415,500 |
| Elire | 1 | 0.03 | 27,798,132 |
Notes
- Scope is Residential Freehold only. Hotel apartments excluded.
- The table reflects registered Q3 transactions tagged to Business Bay.
- Developer names are omitted here because the Business Bay subset in the project mapping lacks complete developer attributions for several towers. If you want the developer leaderboard, say the word and we will enrich the mapping and add Table 7B.
Signals from the leaderboard
- Concentration: More than half of Q3 registrations in Business Bay sat in one tower.
- Compact tilt: median tickets near two to two and a half million align with one and two-bed formats that price higher per foot.
- Selective premium: a few larger tickets printed, but they were one-off, stack-specific moves.
📝 Interpretation
This is a low breadth quarter. The area’s Q3 tape came from a short list of projects, with compact formats doing the work. That concentration explains the sharp jump in psf and the smaller rise in median ticket.
🧭 AIQYA Insight
- Investor: shortlist three or four towers with leasing depth and low exit friction. In Business Bay, the right one-bed beats an average studio on rentability and tenant profile.
- End user/upgrader: buy the stack, not the headline psf. Prioritise service charges, floorplate, and orientation in established towers and negotiate on spec rather than chasing a record price per foot.
Affordability Snapshot: Where Buyers Are Spending
Business Bay’s chequebook moved up the curve in Q3. The centre of gravity sat between AED 1.5 mn and 3 mn, with a firm tail in AED 3–5 mn. Sub-AED 0.75 mn was absent, which fits the district’s specifications and address premium.
Table 8A. Ticket bands, Business Bay (Q3 2025)
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| Ticket band (AED) | Share of transactions | Count |
| ≤ 0.75 mn | 0.0% | 0 |
| 0.75–1.5 mn | 15.2% | 10 |
| 1.5–3 mn | 59.1% | 39 |
| 3–5 mn | 21.2% | 14 |
| 5 mn+ | 4.5% | 3 |
| Quarter sample size: 66. |
Table 8B. Q2 to Q3 shift in ticket bands (Business Bay)
| Ticket band (AED) | Q2 share | Q3 share | Shift (pp) |
| ≤ 0.75 mn | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 0.75–1.5 mn | 30.4% | 15.2% | −15.2 |
| 1.5–3 mn | 44.9% | 59.1% | +14.2 |
| 3–5 mn | 23.3% | 21.2% | −2.1 |
| 5 mn+ | 1.4% | 4.5% | +3.1 |
| Quarter sample sizes: Q2 = 352, Q3 = 66. |
📝 Interpretation
The wallet moved up a notch. Q2 had more activity in the AED 0.75–1.5 mn band, helped by broader off-plan intake. Q3 concentrated in AED 1.5–3 mn one-bed and compact two-bed, which also explains the higher psf. The 3–5 mn lane stayed steady and selective. Five million plus printed a few stack-specific trades, not a broad wave.
🧭 AIQYA Insight
- Investor: your sweet spot is AED 1.5–3 mn one beds with strong leasing depth and low exit friction.
- End user: negotiate in the AED 1.5–3 mn lane for better floorplates and orientation; compare total monthly outflow to current rent.
- Upgrader: in AED 3–5 mn, buy certainty. Service charges, tower management, and stack quality should decide the deal.
Buyer Profile & Demand Lens
Business Bay drew three clear buyer mindsets in Q3. Investors chased rentability and exit speed. End users protected monthly outflow while staying close to the core. Upgraders paid for stack quality in a few proven towers. The off-plan tilt shaped all three, but the logic inside each lane stayed distinct.
Table 9A. Who is buying and what they optimise in Business Bay (Q3 2025)
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| Segment | What they value | Q3 behaviour signal | Actionable next steps |
| Investor | Concentrated in one bed and compact two beds in the AED 1.5–3 mn band | Stability, commute efficiency, and monthly outflow | Shortlist 3 to 5 towers with leasing depth and low resale friction. Price by stack, not headline psf. Model net yield after service charges. |
| End user | Sparse three-bed trades, mostly stack specific in better run buildings | Selective in ready stock. Floorplate and orientation mattered more than novelty | Compare total monthly outflow to current rent. Walk amenities at peak hours. Prioritise towers with transparent service charges and track records. |
| Upgrader | Delivery certainty, brand, stack quality | Sparse three bed trades, mostly stack specific in better run buildings | If space is non-negotiable, shop stack by stack. Pay for layout and orientation, not a low psf alone. Keep a reserve for fitout and early snagging. |
📝 Interpretation
The area’s slower tape rewarded buyers who did their homework. Investors leaned into the one-bed lane where leasing depth is strongest. End users looked for certainty in established towers. Upgraders moved only when the stack cleared the test on layout, light, and running costs.
🧭 AIQYA Insight
Write two shortlists. One for yield and one for life. For yield, target a compact one-bed with a proven leasing history and simple exit. For life, pick two or three towers that fit your daily routine, then choose the stack that gives you light, silence, and a sensible service charge profile.
Rental Trends and Yield Outlook
Rents in Business Bay held broadly flat quarter on quarter, but sale prices per foot rose sharply. That mix compressed yields, especially on a per-foot basis.
Table 10A. Business Bay rents and yields (Q2 vs Q3 2025)
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| Quarter | Median rent (AED per month) | Median rent (AED per sq.ft per month) | Gross yield % | PSF yield % |
| Q2 2025 | 8,333 | 9.50 | 4.84 | 8.09 |
| Q3 2025 | 8,313 | 9.70 | 4.17 | 4.33 |
Notes
- Scope is Residential Freehold only. Hotel apartments excluded.
- Gross yield equals median annual rent divided by median ticket.
- PSF yield equals 12 times median rent per square foot per month divided by median sale price per square foot.
- Sample sizes: Q2 rents 3,870 records, Q3 rents 5,654 records.
📝 Interpretation
Rents edged up per foot but stayed flat per month, while sale psf almost doubled. The result is yield compression. Gross yield slipped from about 4.8 percent to about 4.2 percent. PSF yield fell more sharply given the jump in sale psf. This is a composition story. Compact, higher specification stacks traded at higher psf, but lease medians did not move enough to keep pace.
🧭 AIQYA Insight
For investors, underwriting needs to be tower-specific. Model net yield after service charges and be disciplined on entry. The resilient lane is compact one-beds in buildings with deep leasing history and low exit friction. For end users, this is a reminder to price life, not just psf. If the monthly rent you are paying is close to the mortgage outflow on a well-managed tower, the switch from rent to own can still make sense even as yields compress.
Configuration Spotlight: Project-wise Breakdown
Configuration is the fingerprint of each tower. Business Bay’s Q3 leaders point to a compact-first quarter where one beds did the heavy lifting and selective mid-sized floors traded on specification and brand.
Table 11A. Three contrasting Q3 leaders in Business Bay
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| Project | Transactions | Median ticket (AED) | Typical buyer lens | Configuration signal |
| Trillionaire Residences by Binghatti | 14 | 1,510,000 | Investor first | Studio and one bed skew, priced for fast leasing and exit speed |
| CHIC Tower | 13 | 2,025,000 | Investor plus upgrader crossover | One to two bed focus where finish and amenities justify the psf |
| One.B Tower | 4 | 2,415,500 | End user selective | Mid-sized one and two beds, stack choice mattered more than a small psf discount |
How buyers chose inside the projects
- Trillionaire Residences by Binghatti sat in the AED 1.5 million lane. That price posture signals a heavy one-bed mix with some studios. Investors chased rentability and quick resale cycles within a brand that moves inventory fast.
- CHIC Tower operated as a bridge. The median near AED 2.0 million suggests better specified one and two-bed. Buyers paid for design cues and amenity depth without stepping into the three-bed bracket.
- One. B Tower was stack-driven. Fewer but more decisive trades where end users paid for orientation, light, and layout rather than a headline psf story.
📝 Interpretation
The configuration map matches the quarter’s rotation. Compact formats priced for rentability carried volume. Mid-sized formats cleared when the specification and address created a step up. Larger homes were thin and stack specific.
🧭 AIQYA Insight
If you are buying for yield, shortlist compact one-bedrooms in towers with deep leasing history and low exit friction. If you are buying for life, treat the mid-sized lane as a tower-by-tower decision. Pay for floorplate and orientation, and weigh service charges against any psf headline.
Risks and Watchpoints
Business Bay is liquid, but the cycle still rewards careful selection. The next leg hinges on handover timing, building operations, and how investors price exit speed against running costs.
Table 12A. Watchlist for Business Bay (Q4 2025 to mid 2026)
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| Risk or watchpoint | Why it matters in Business Bay | Near term signal to track | What a prudent buyer should do |
| Handover bulges in adjacent launch corridors | Clustered completions nearby can pull renters and dilute short term demand | Monthly handovers vs historic leasing depth within 10 to 15 minutes of Bay | Prefer projects with visible site progress and staged handovers; match payment schedules to handover windows |
| Clustered completions nearby can pull renters and dilute short-term demand | Off-plan concentration and resale spreads | First resale premiums within 6 to 12 months of launch; days on market | Underwrite a conservative resale psf; avoid chasing launch-week premiums without depth of comps |
| Service charges and building operations | Opex can flatten net yields and slow resale for value buyers | Annual service charge notices; lifts, HVAC, façade maintenance cycles | High off-plan share can widen spreads between allocation and secondary |
| Short stay and use rules by building | STR policies vary by tower and management, affecting income plans | Building-level notices and HOA communication | Confirm permitted use and minimum stay rules in writing; do not assume general STR headlines apply |
| Mortgage affordability and approval timing | Monthly outflows shape upgrade decisions at the margin | Rate path and approval volumes for first-time buyers | Price net yield after charges; compare like-for-like across towers before committing |
📝 Interpretation
Most risks are tower-specific, not district-wide. Service charges and building governance move the needle as much as the headline psf. The off-plan tilt makes entry discipline and resale math more important than usual.
🧭 AIQYA Insight
Anchor decisions in evidence. Walk the building, read the service charge notice, and keep a comp file by tower. If you are buying for yield, buy net yield. If you are buying for life, buy floorplate, orientation, and the management track record.
Supply Snapshot: What is in the pipeline?
Business Bay’s Q3 pipeline was light. The quarter showed one active pipeline project tagged Launched or Under Construction inside the planning area, down from three in both Q1 and Q2. This supports the rotation narrative. Launch-led energy moved to adjacent corridors while Business Bay focused on selective resale and a narrow off-plan lane.
Table 13A. Business Bay pipeline snapshot (projects count)
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| Quarter | Pipeline projects | Launched | Under Construction |
| Q1 2025 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Q2 2025 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Q3 2025 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Table 13B. Q3 pipeline: top developers by active projects
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| Developer | Projects in Q3 pipeline |
| Damac MRY Investment L.L.C | 1 |
Notes
- Pipeline means projects tagged Launched or Under Construction inside Business Bay.
- Counts are based on unique project names.
- Citywide pipeline broadened in Q3, but Business Bay’s own pipeline count was slim, which is why resale selectivity defined the quarter here.
📝 Interpretation
A thin local pipeline and selective resales fit the quarter’s profile. Off-plan energy for the city skewed toward higher-churn corridors, while Business Bay recorded a narrow band of registrations anchored by a few towers.
🧭 AIQYA Insight
- Investor: treat Business Bay off-plan as selective and timing dependent. If allocation day depth is thin in the district, widen the search to adjacent corridors, then circle back for resales in towers with leasing depth.
- End user: monitor construction milestones and service charge updates in your short list. With fewer new schemes, the next opportunity set will come from handovers and selective listings rather than a broad launch wave.
Final Observations and Buyer Takeaways
Business Bay in Q3 was tight and selective. Deal counts fell, psf jumped, and the pipeline thinned inside the district. The story in composition. Off-plan drove the quarter citywide, while inside Business Bay, the action clustered in a few compact, higher specification towers. Rents held broadly flat per month and edged up per foot, which compressed yields against a higher sale psf.
Buyer takeaways
Investor
- Work the compact one bed lane in towers with deep leasing history and clean exits.
- Underwrite net yield after service charges, not just gross.
- Be price disciplined on off plan. Use allocation depth and first resale spreads as your signal.
End user
- Shortlist by tower and stack, then buy floorplate, orientation, and management quality.
- Compare total monthly outflow to current rent to time the switch to owning.
- Two beds in the 1,100 to 1,600 sq.ft band remain the best balance of space and address.
Upgrader
- Three beds traded thinly and stack choice dominated outcomes.
- Pay for layout and light rather than chase a low headline psf.
- Keep a reserve for snagging and early maintenance to protect timelines.
What to watch in Q4
- Any new Business Bay launches and the depth of allocation lists.
- Handover waves in adjacent corridors that can tug at renter demand.
- Service charge updates and building-level opex that influence net yield and resale.
Data Source Attribution
Primary sources
- Dubai Land Department registered sales transactions.
- Dubai Land Department registered lease contracts.
- AIQYA projects dataset is enriched with area and status.
Scope and filters
- Residential Freehold only. Apartments, townhouses, villas included.
- Hotel apartments are excluded from the core residential scope.
- Period covered is Q3 2025, with Q1 and Q2 2025 for context.
Cleaning and standardisation
- Deduplication by composite keys such as project name, date, area, and value.
- Area conversions to sq.ft where needed.
- Configuration mapping from Rooms where available. Otherwise, size bands act as a proxy.
- Ready vs off-plan derived from registry flags where present. Records without a clear flag are marked as Unknown and excluded from split percentages where appropriate.
Metrics and calculations
- Median ticket equals the median of transaction value.
- Median price per sq.ft equals transaction value divided by built area in sq.ft then median applied.
- Rent metrics use median monthly rent and median rent per sq.ft per month.
- Gross yield equals median annual rent divided by median ticket multiplied by 100.
- PSF yield equals 12 times median rent per sq.ft per month divided by median sale price per sq.ft multiplied by 100.
- Supply snapshot uses projects tagged Launched or Under Construction via STATUS_STD.
Limitations and notes
- Some project to developer attributions inside Business Bay are incomplete in the Q3 mapping. Tables that require developer names are marked accordingly or use project names only.
- Figures are rounded for readability.
Disclaimer
Figures are based on official registered datasets processed by AIQYA. Minor gaps may exist due to naming inconsistencies or exclusions. This report is intended for insight and education, not financial advice.
